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☆ The IMF sees greater chance of a ‘soft landing’ for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The IMF’s projections for growth and inflation are “increasingly consistent with a ‘soft landing’ scenario… especially in the United States,” Gourinchas continued. The 20 countries using the euro are expected to grow collectively by 0.7% this year and 1.2% next year, a downgrade of 0.2 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points respectively from July. The IMF upgraded its growth forecasts for the US economy to 2.1% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024 — an improvement of 0.3 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively. “The strongest recovery among major economies has been in the United States,” the IMF said. The IMF revised its forecasts for global inflation to 6.9% this year and 5.8% next year — an increase of 0.1 percentage point and 0.6 percentage points respectively.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, ” Gourinchas, Qilai Shen, Gourinchas Organizations: London CNN —, Monetary Fund, IMF, Bloomberg, Getty, Brent Locations: United States, China, Europe, Ukraine, Guangzhou, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ Global economy 'limping along' below pre-pandemic growth level, IMF's chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGlobal economy 'limping along' below pre-pandemic growth level, IMF's chief economist saysPierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor and director of the research department at the International Monetary Fund, discusses divergences in global growth, resilience in the U.S. and revisions to the IMF's outlook.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Organizations: International Monetary Fund Locations: U.S

The IMF said it expects global economic growth to slow to 2.9% in 2024 from an expected 3% this year. “The global economy is limping along, not sprinting," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at a news conference during the organization's annual meeting in Marrakech, Morocco. If sustained, a 10% increase in oil prices would reduce global economic growth by 0.15% and increase global inflation by 0.4%, Gourinchas said. So far, the increase in oil prices has been “fairly muted,” said Commerzbank commodities analyst Carsten Fritsch. The United States is a standout in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, which was completed before the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, “, Gourinchas, “ We’ve, ”, Carsten Fritsch Organizations: Hamas, International Monetary Fund, IMF, United Arab, U.S . Federal Reserve, Saudi Locations: Ukraine, Israel, Marrakech, Morocco, Palestinian, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, United States, U.S, Europe, Russia, Beijing

☆ IMF Says It's Too Soon to Assess Economic Impact
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The top economist at the International Monetary Fund said it is too soon to tell whether the war between Israel and Hamas will have broad economic consequences. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the conflict risks creating an energy-supply shock, which could raise oil prices, feed inflation and reduce growth. IMF research shows a 10% increase in oil prices reduces global economic growth by 0.15 percentage point. While oil prices have jumped since the fighting started, Gourinchas said the increases may not last. I think it's too early to really assess what the impact might be," he said, at the IMF's annual meetings in Marrakesh, Morocco.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas Organizations: International Monetary Fund Locations: Israel, Marrakesh, Morocco

☆ China's property sector is facing massive risks and authorities must meet it with 'forceful action', IMF says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Chinese officials must take "forceful action" to address the problems in its property sector, an IMF official said. "Clearly what this is calling for is forceful action by the authorities," he said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe chief economist of the International Monetary Fund cautioned that Beijing authorities must enact robust policy to address the issues plaguing China's property sector. "Clearly what this is calling for is forceful action by the authorities," Gourinchas said, according to Bloomberg.

Persons: —, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg, IMF Locations: Beijing, Marrakesh, Morocco, Evergrande, Gourinchas, China

That sobering view of a post-pandemic global economy emerged from research organized by the Kansas City Federal Reserve and debated here this past weekend. "This puts us in a bleak setting, thinking about the parts of the world that are labor rich but capital poor," he said. "I do remember a time, maybe a more naive time...when more trade would create friends," said Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England. If there was a potential bright spot, it was around the discussion of advances in artificial intelligence as a possible driver of higher productivity. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: JACKSON, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Maurice Obstfeld, Barry Eichengreen, Eswar Prasad, Donald Trump, Biden, Jared Bernstein, Bernstein, Ben Broadbent, Ngozi Okonjo, Iweala, Trump, Nela Richardson, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Kansas City Federal Reserve, U.S, Monetary Fund, Fed, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, University of California, Cornell University, U.S . White House Council, Economic, Biden, Bank of England, Trade Organization, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Ukraine, China, West, Washington . China, U.S, Berkeley, Japan, Nigeria, Russian, Europe

Ruined rice crops in India's Haryana state. More than three billion people worldwide rely on rice as a staple food and India contributed to about 40% of global rice exports. India's rice stock is piling up as a result of the ban. Vijay Bedi/CNNAt one of New Delhi’s largest rice trading hubs, there are fears among traders that the export ban will cause catastrophic consequences. “The export ban has left traders with huge amounts of stock,” said rice trader Roopkaran Singh.

Persons: India CNN — Satish Kumar, “ I’ve, ”, Kumar, Vijay Bedi, Niño, ” Kumar, ” Satish Kumar, Ukraine —, ” Arif Husain, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, ” Husain, “, CNN Surjit Singh, Harayana, …, El Niño, Roopkaran Singh, Husain Organizations: India CNN, CNN, United Nations Food, Agriculture Organization, India wasn’t, United Nations, Food Programme, ” Workers, Thai Rice, Association, India’s Ministry of Agriculture, Monetary Fund, Farmers, Reuters, Meteorological Organization Locations: Harayana, India, India’s Haryana, “, India's Haryana, Ukraine, Global South, United States, Russia, Rice, New Delhi, CNN Nepal, Vietnam, Thailand, Thai, Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, El, India’s, West Africa

"The economy is a global economy, right? Yet Fed officials remain puzzled, and somewhat concerned, over conflicting signals in the incoming data. But gross domestic product is still expanding at a pace well above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%. Difficulties in China, meanwhile, may drag down global growth the longer they fester. Its slowdown after a short-lived growth burst earlier this year could pinch Germany's exports and slow Europe's growth, for instance.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann Saphir, JACKSON, Jackson, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Loretta Mester, Mester, Lagarde, Biden, Nathan Sheets, Powell, Gourinchas, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Monetary Fund, Cleveland Fed, Reuters, Citigroup, Consumer, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Brazil, Chile, China, Ukraine

☆ IMF sees drought causing Argentina contraction of 2.5% in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday it is now projecting Argentina's economy will contract 2.5% in 2023, with a year-end inflation rate of about 120%, largely due to a crippling drought that has curtailed agricultural production. "Argentina is facing a very difficult situation particularly that's made worse by the drought, the agricultural drought it has been facing in the last year or so," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told a news conference. The Argentina forecast, a steep downgrade from an April projection of 0.2% growth in 2023, stands in stark contrast to a slightly improved outlook for global growth in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook projections. Gourinchas declined to comment on how the forecasts may affect negotiations with Argentina over its $44 billion IMF loan program. IMF deputy research director Petya Koeva-Brooks said the inflation projection of 120% would require some moderation of inflation rates and would require implementing macroeconomic policies agreed between the IMF and Argentina.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Petya Koeva, Brooks, David Lawder, Chizu Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, The, Thomson Locations: Argentina

☆ IMF urges BOJ to move away from yield control, prepare for future tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Leika Kihara | Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan should start preparing for future monetary tightening by moving away from its yield control policy, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said on Tuesday. FILE PHOTO: A Japanese flag flutters on the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, March 15, 2016. They have also said the BOJ was mindful of the cost of YCC such as market distortions caused by its heavy bond buying. Widening the allowance band around its 10-year yield target, a step it took last December, could be among options to mitigate the side-effects of YCC, analysts say. Growth in the world’s third-largest economy is expected to slow to 1.0% in 2024 as the effect of past stimulus measures dissipate, the IMF said.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Toru Hanai, ” Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan, Monetary Fund’s, REUTERS, Reuters Locations: TOKYO, WASHINGTON, Tokyo, Japan

☆ IMF raises global growth forecast despite China's recovery 'losing steam'
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

watch nowThe International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its growth forecast for the global economy, turning slightly more positive despite slowing momentum from China. In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its 2023 global growth prediction by 0.2 percentage point to 3%, up from 2.8% in its April assessment. "The global economy continues to gradually recover from the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In China, the recovery following the reopening of its economy shows signs of losing steam amid continued concerns about the property sector, with implications for the global economy," Gourinchas said. This is due to weaker manufacturing output and lower growth performance during the first quarter of this year, the IMF said.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Cyrus de la Rubia Organizations: Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF, Hamburg Commercial Bank Locations: China, Ukraine, U.S, United States, Beijing, Germany

☆ IMF: Global economy is improving but inflation is still enemy No. 1
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —The global economy is showing more resilience than economists previously thought — but, although some risks have abated, choppy waters could still be ahead, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. In its latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the agency said it expects global growth of 3% in both 2023 and 2024. “Global economic activity has proven resilient in the first quarter of this year, leading to a modest upward revision for global growth in 2023,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, said in a statement. From 2000 to 2019, annual global economic growth averaged 3.8%, according to the IMF. When looking across the global economy, there are concerns that China’s recovery could slow further, as its debt-laden real estate sector weighs on growth, according to the report.

Persons: ” Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Chris Ratcliffe, ” Gourinchas, Gourinchas, “, ” Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, International Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF, Bloomberg, Getty, Publishing, Federal Reserve Locations: Minneapolis, Oxford, United Kingdom, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, Yantai, Shandong province, China

☆ IMF edges 2023 global economic growth forecast higher, sees persistent challenges
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/File PhotoWASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its 2023 global growth estimates slightly given resilient economic activity in the first quarter, but warned that persistent challenges were dampening the medium-term outlook. The 2023-2024 growth forecast remains weak by historical standards, well below the annual average of 3.8% seen in 2000-2019, largely due to weaker manufacturing in advanced economies, and it could stay at that level for years. This was also related to the aging of the global population, especially in countries like China, Germany and Japan, he said. The impact of higher interest rates was especially evident in poorer countries, driving debt costs higher and limiting room for priority investments. It left its forecast for growth in China, the world's second-largest economy, unchanged at 5.2% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Ken Cedeno, we're, Gourinchas, Andrea Shalal, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Research Department IMF, International Monetary Fund, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Monetary Fund, IMF, Reuters, Health, El, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, China, Germany, Japan, United States, Ukraine

☆ Global economy 'not out of the woods' yet despite growth forecast hike, says IMF chief economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGlobal economy 'not out of the woods' yet despite growth forecast hike, says IMF chief economistIMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what investors should take away from the IMF's latest forecast bump, whether now may not be a good time to end the Federal Reserve's rate campaign, and more.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas

☆ IMF chief says there's no significant slowdown in lending and the Fed may need to do more
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The International Monetary Fund has yet to see enough banks pulling back on lending that would cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to change course with its rate-hiking cycle. "We don't yet see a significant slowdown in lending. The Federal Reserve in a May banks report warned that lenders are worried about conditions ahead, as trouble in mid-sized financial institutions in the U.S. caused banks to tighten lending standards for households and businesses. A majority of major global central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, have tightened their monetary policy aggressively to tame soaring inflation. Meanwhile, the world's global debt has swelled to a near-record high of $305 trillion, according to the Institute of International Finance.

Persons: Georgieva, Kristalina Georgieva, Karen Tso, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, IIF Organizations: Monetary Fund, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Institute of International Finance Locations: Dubrovnik, Croatia, U.S

☆ IMF urges BOJ to keep ultra-low rates, but be ready to shift course
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It won't happen overnight" as the public must be convinced Japan won't fall back to deflation, Gourinchas said, adding it was "too early" for the BOJ to tighten policy. While it was appropriate to keep interest rates ultra-low, the BOJ must keep in mind the experience of other central banks that are still struggling to tame high inflation. So, there is a need to be vigilant and to be ready to tighten monetary policy if inflation remains too elevated." He also said it would be "very difficult" to tighten monetary policy while maintaining YCC, due to the challenge of determining the appropriate level for two rate targets. And then, if the need arises to tighten monetary policy, it can do so as part of the usual tightening of the policy rate," he said.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Monetary Fund's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Japan, TOKYO

☆ IMF still concerned by banking sector wobbles - chief economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

FILE PHOTO: A participant stands near a logo of IMF at the International Monetary Fund - World Bank Annual Meeting 2018 in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, October 12, 2018. REUTERS/Johannes P. Christo/File PhotoPARIS (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund remains concerned about recent turbulence in the banking sector despite actions by the U.S. and Swiss authorities to deal with troubled banks on their watch, its chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said on Monday. Speaking to journalists in Paris, he added that “the story is not over” and that EU banks were not immune to problems as long as the bloc did not go further to complete long-discussed mechanisms to deal with failed banks.

☆ Economists and policymakers were fretting about a wage-price spiral. Not any more
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The experts were worried about a so-called wage-price spiral. Businesses' revenues "have risen faster than costs, and so margins have room to absorb rising labor costs." "It's not that a wage-price spiral couldn't happen, but it's low on the list of concerns versus the factors we know are problematic," she said. A key mechanism that would fuel a wage-price spiral, workers' bargaining power, has been weakened because unions have less power than in the 1970s, Makszin added. "But if you let interest rates go down against inflation and in effect weaken, you have an inflation spiral.

REUTERS/Ken CedenoWASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - Zambia could lose gains achieved so far from macroeconomic reforms if its ongoing debt restructuring is further delayed, Treasury Secretary Felix Nkulukusa said on Wednesday. The next IMF payout to Zambia from the loan is contingent upon its bilateral creditors reaching an agreement on the long-delayed debt restructuring. The country recently completed the first review of the programme, and the next one is expected in about three months. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, director of the IMF's Strategy Policy and Review Department, was more optimistic about Zambia's debt restructuring during the panel. The IMF official said that creditors have asked to share and exchange information "sooner" during debt restructuring talks, and added that the Washington-based lender is willing to do so.

☆ Asia markets mostly rise ahead of U.S. inflation report, bank earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Sydney Harbour taking in the Harbour Bridge, Opera House and ferries at sunrise during the COVID-19 pandemic on April 20, 2020 in Sydney, Australia. Markets in the Asia-Pacific mostly rose on Wednesday as investors await key U.S. inflation data that will determine the Federal Reserve's path forward in its tightening cycle. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a 6% year-over-year increase in the U.S. consumer price index. New York Fed President John Williams emphasized in an interview with Yahoo Finance overnight that the central bank will remain "data dependent." In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.4% and the Topix gained 0.6% as traders further digested Japan's producer price index and machinery orders report.

☆ European markets set to open mixed ahead of key U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European markets are keeping an eye on key U.S. inflation data. European markets are set to open mixed Wednesday as investors await key inflation data from the U.S. set for release later in the day. That data will likely determine the U.S. Federal Reserve's path in its tightening cycle. Investors will also be digesting the International Monetary Fund's latest global growth report, released Tuesday, which included its weakest medium-term growth forecast for more than 30 years. U.S. stock futures were flat in overnight trading Tuesday, while markets in the Asia-Pacific were mostly higher on Wednesday as investors turned their focus to March's highly anticipated inflation report.

Reuters GraphicsNOTHING 'BROKEN' YETInternational economic officials gathering in Washington this week for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings can take some comfort that pandemic-era risks are continuing to diminish. An aggressive year of central bank rate hikes hasn't yet "broken" any of the economies involved, with the U.S. unemployment rate at 3.5%, near its lowest level since the late 1960s. Still, that terminal rate remains unclear, and the end of synchronized tightening by the Fed, BoE and European Central Bank doesn't mean tight monetary policy is going away. Wages, services and food are driving price growth to the point that the ECB's attention has shifted almost entirely to underlying inflation on fears that rapid price growth is at risk of getting stuck above target. The U.S. central bank is expected to increase its benchmark overnight interest rate by another quarter of a percentage point next month, and signal whether more hikes may be warranted.

☆ Banking turmoil was not a crisis but 'the downside risks are real,' IIF boss warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Tim Adams Anjali Sundaram | CNBCThe banking sector turmoil that led to the collapse of several lenders was not a systemic crisis and has now subsided, according to Tim Adams, CEO of the Institute of International Finance. Speaking to CNBC on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings in Washington D.C. on Tuesday, Adams said the March chaos was a "period of market turmoil or turbulence," but dismissed the notion that it was a "crisis." The IIF is a global trade body for the financial services industry, with around 400 members in more than 60 countries. Adams said the primary concern among members was the downside risk to growth, particularly in advanced economies. The IMF on Tuesday lowered its five-year global growth forecast to around 3%, marking the lowest medium-term forecast in an IMF World Economic Outlook report since 1990.

The latter could slam global growth back to about 1% this year, effectively a recession on a per-capita GDP basis. 'PERILOUS' RISKSThe IMF's Global Financial Stability Report warned of a "perilous combination of vulnerabilities" in financial markets, saying that some participants had failed to adequately prepare for the impact of interest rate increases. Despite the warnings, the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said inflation is still the bigger problem and that price stability should take precedence over financial stability risks for central banks' monetary policy. Only in the event of a very severe financial crisis should those priorities be reversed, he said in a news conference. She added that the global financial system was also resilient due to reforms enacted after the 2008 financial crisis.

☆ UK economy set for smaller hit in 2023 than previously feared - IMF
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

British gross domestic product will contract by 0.3% in 2023, the IMF said in its latest set of global forecasts, a smaller shrinkage than the 0.6% contraction the Fund predicted in January. Britain is no longer the only Group of Seven economy set for a fall in GDP this year as Germany is now expected to shrink by 0.1%, the IMF forecasts showed. But its contraction this year is set to be the biggest among the Group of 20 economies, according to the IMF's forecasts. After narrowly avoiding recession in 2022, Britain's economy has shown some signs of resilience in early 2023. The IMF said it expected Britain's economy would grow by 1.0% in 2024, weaker than most other G7 economies with the exception of Italy while matching Japan's expected growth rate.

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